Bart van Ark

A Deeper U.S. Recession Than Anticipated
For the second time this month, we have had to deepen our recession forecast significantly. Our current recession forecast of more than 4 percent (annualized) for both the current quarter and the first quarter of 2009 is based on several factors. The housing market still shows few signs of bottoming out. Even though mortgage rates appear on a downward trend, conditions are still tight, and this is true of most other lending instruments. Consumer expenditure is also not showing any signs of recovery. Business has hugely contracted in terms of investment at more than 14 percent. And employment is declining at dramatic rates, dropping 533,000 workers in November for a total loss of more than 1.5 million jobs since the turnaround last December. ... more

Also:
A Slight Deepening of the Recessionary Forecast
Update on the U.S. and Global Economies - November 27, 2008
Update on the U.S. and Global Economies - October 8, 2008
Struggling to Find The Bottom in the U.S. Economy

View - Bart van Ark on BBC-TV discussing consumer spending during the upcoming holiday season (October 30, 2008).